Where do the A's go from here?

2019 Offseason

Two straight Wild Card game defeats at the hands of the Yankees and Rays. One at home, and one on the road. If you ask A's fans they'll tell you both losses leave you numb and dead inside. Despite both these difficult losses there were some great trends going into the offseason. The core of team was coming back with Chapman, Olson, Semien, Laureano, Manaea, and Hendriks. These pieces combined with the young arms coming up for the 2020 season added another level of hype in the east bay. Add in the fact that Gerrit Cole was no longer on the Astros, and you could see the division ripe for the taking.

Two areas addressed after the 2019 season were the 2nd base and Catching positions. Quickly into the offseason the team was able to acquire Austin Allen and Buddy Reed for Jurickson Profar. Adding Allen to a catching corps that already included Sean Murphy and Jonah Heim only solidified a position that was questionable in the previous season. Along with this trade the A's were able to acquire 2nd basemen and utility man Tony Kemp, as well as add Vimael Machin in the Rule 5 MLB draft. Outside of these few moves there weren't too many other areas to address, which kept a lot of continuity for a team that had won 97-games back to back and went to the postseason in both seasons.

2020 Regular Season

Win the division or suffer the same fate as 2018 and 2019 was the primary goal this year. It would be a tall task to outlast a team like the Houston Astros for 162 games. As we all know, the season almost didn't happen at all, but luckily the Player's Union and MLB Front Office were able to come to an agreement on a 60 game schedule. This abbreviated schedule made the Astros more vulnerable, but so to were the A's with how poorly they started seasons.

To say the A's started off well would be an understatement. After 30 games they had a 20-10 record assisted by a 9 game winning streak. They were certainly getting the job done in the late innings with some key hits and phenomenal bullpen outings, despite low batting averages. With such a great record, and struggling division, the team didn't have to do too much at the trade deadline. With that being said, they made one of, it not, the most beneficial trades to enhance their chances in the postseason. Adding Tommy La Stella for Franklin Barreto helped stabilize the lineup. This was such an underrated trade, and looking back at it now you could see how overlooked it was by the journalists. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2020-trade-deadline-winners

The second half of the season was rolling along as expected. However, about 2/3 the way through the season Matt Chapman went out with a hip injury. Unfortunately, it wasn't an injury he could play through to finish the subsequent season. The baseball god's were on the side of the A's with the Diamondbacks designating Jake Lamb for assignment. It seemed to make perfect sense and the two sides were able to come to an agreement. By this point, the division was all but wrapped up for the Athletics. Lamb came in and hit for power and average, while playing solid defense.

With a little less than a week to play the A's were able to clinch the division. This feat was extremely impressive considering there were only 60 games this year.

2020 Postseason

The expanded postseason almost came back to hurt the A's in the Wild Card round. Up until the final weekend of the season the White Sox had been leading the AL Central, only to fumble it away. The AL Central had 3 of its 5 teams make the postseason. This demonstrated how tough of a division it was, and how impressive it was for a young White Sox team to lead it for so long before eventually faltering. I don't think it's too outlandish to think that the White Sox could, and probably should win a World Series within the next 5 seasons.

White Sox Series

To say the White Sox are coming for the league would be a major understatement. The core of their team is age 27 or younger, with Jose Abreu and Dallas Keuchel being the outliers. The White Sox were able to show off their ace Lucas Giolito. Giolito took a perfect game into the 7th inning before conceding a hit to Tommy La Stella. Not bad for his first postseason game against a team that had made the Wild Card round in back to back seasons. The following games included some clutch pitching and hitting along with some ill-timed base on balls by the White Sox bullpen. Altogether this series made the A's a stronger team for having to win a Winner-Take-All-Game, and allowed the White Sox a taste of October baseball.

Astros Series

Leading into the Division Series how many times were you reminded the A's won the head to head against the Astros 7-3? Also, you were constantly reminded the Astros weren't a legit threat because of their regular season record of 29-31. To the common fan this probably made you feel very confident. However, as a baseball fanatic you knew prior records mean nothing once you get to October. This Astros team straight up bullied the AL Central Champion, Minnesota Twins. Many people will point to the Twins futile postseason successes, but once you dive into that series and see how dominant Astros pitchers were it was no surprise they advanced in a sweep.

The talk leading up to the A's-Astros series was about pitching. The A's dominant bullpen against the Astros starting rotation, which seemed to find itself in the previous series. It was the offenses that took center stage. The A's would jump out to a lead and the Astros would not only match it, but usually double it. These continuous shortcomings from the starting pitchers and bullpen of the A's provided steep hills to overcome for its offense. Both entities will get their fair share of blame, and they should, but the amount of praise for the Astros lineup cannot be understated. Their lineup consists of 8 legit hitting options with 1 through 6 being potentially the best in the league (Dodgers may contest to that). Even in the A's dying last outs they were able to make the Astros work for it. Ultimately, it's a series they were outplayed, but it's hard not to wonder what could have been if they were able to hold leads. Or, if this series was played at home with fans. Or if Matt Chapman were available. I do honestly believe this would've been a 5 game affair if this series were played in Oakland, but those hypotheticals mean nothing in an uncanny year. Sometimes you've got to tip your cap even if it's to a team that has cheated in the past.

Overview

This season ends on an especially sour note being that it happened at the hands of the Houston Astros. Hopefully, people will be able to take a step back and digest how great a year it was. Most the predictions had the A's anywhere between 32 to 34 regular season wins. They eclipsed that with a 36-24 mark.

The stars of the team had difficult seasons this year. Matt Olson could never find a consistent groove at the plate. He was able to pile up home runs, but a sub .200 batting average after hitting .267 last year stymied his patience. Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien also had difficult years. You could chalk the struggles up to the abbreviated 60-game schedule, or rust as a result of taking months off prior to the season starting in July.

On the bright side, the A's found their catcher for years to come in Sean Murphy. He was able to control a pitching staff and show off his power as a hitter. Mind you, he did all this as a rookie. Another up and comer that produced this season was Jesus Luzardo. For years we had been hearing about him being the face of the franchise only for injuries to delay his arrival. He's here now, and up to stay. Fingers crossed, injuries during a full season don't derail a phenomenal talent. There were more bright spots than these two obviously, but with the expectations put on their shoulders I wanted to highlight them specifically.

What now?

This is the part of the discussion that gets uncomfortable. The team isn't far from making a deeper run in the postseason, but the only way they'll be able to do that is by letting go of some fan favorites.

A's Free Agents

Marcus Semien - If you go based on the regular season it'd be tough to make an argument for giving him top shortstop dollars. However, his play in the postseason was magnificent. His batting average/on-base percentage/ops splits were .391/.462/1.157. Hint, that's really good. Going into this postseason I would have recommended signing him for 2, maybe 3 seasons. After this postseason I think a 3 year deal would be a lock. This would have him in green and gold until he's 33 years old. There's a chance they could sign him for longer, but that all depends on how the front office views the development of prospects Robert Puason (age 18) and Logan Davidson (22). Both are at least a year or two away from seeing the majors.

Prediction: 3 years in my estimation would be perfect for the organization. It will be interesting to see what kind of money he's commanding and if he's willing to give a hometown discount. He's rarely injured and a model of consistency. I don't think he's going anywhere. The only thing that gets you wondering is their latest postseason exit. You can't put this on him, but management might look to use that money elsewhere.

Mike Minor - This was another under the radar move by the A's front office. If he were traded at the deadline in 2019 he would have garnered at least one top prospect. Unfortunately for him, he had a down year. He came over and pitched well for the A's as a spot starter and out of the bullpen. His role in the postseason was primarily out of the pen, and he was able to do a nice job in some difficult situations. Not only is Minor a free agent this offseason, but so is Mike Fiers. Both are getting up there in age with Minor (33 next season) and Fiers (35 next season). The A's could look to let both walk which would sure up money to spend elsewhere.

Prediction: It's obviously going to come down to how many years Minor is looking for with his next contract. I think the team should sign him over Fiers. Minor is younger and shown he can still be effective. The biggest differentiation between the two is that he's a lefty as opposed to Fiers who is a righty.

Mike Fiers - Similar to Minor, Fiers came over midseason in 2018 to help stabilize a rotation for a postseason run. Little did the A's know that he would go on to be the 'ace' of their staff the next season. He's been a model of consistency in his career. If you ask most people they'll tell you if he's the ace of the rotation your team probably isn't very good. Obviously, this is a mischaracterization as he's been a consummate professional. He's played a huge role in the development of the younger staff members. He's also held in high regard amongst A's fans for blowing the whistle on the Astros cheating scandal.

Prediction: He definitely fits the mold of what you expect from an A's pitcher. He competes despite having 4th or 5th starter stuff. As I said earlier, I would keep Minor over Fiers for the fact that Minor is younger, and a lefty. It could come down to one or the other. Combined he and Minor were under contract this season for over $15 million.

Liam Hendriks - It's hard to believe he was designated for assignment just over two years ago. He took the demotion and went to the minor leagues before being called back up during the 2018 season. He proved himself enough that season, that he was the selection as the opener in the Wild Card game against the New York Yankees. In 2019, he was placed in the role as closer and he never looked back. He's been one of the best closers these past two seasons. When you think of A's players, he's the guy that comes to mind. The media sure seems to think so as he tends to be the usually A's player interviewed by national journalists.

Predictions: Shutdown closers are at a premium (go figure). He's definitely going to have offers for big money. With Kenley Jansen's decline with the Dodgers I wouldn't be surprised if they offer a stupid amount of money. With Hendriks it's not about the money. We know this by him accepting an assignment to go to the minors. We'll see how much the team is willing to shell out for him. For reference, Mark Melancon (age 35) and Kenley Jansen (33) are making $19 million and $18 million apiece. Hendriks will be 32 years old when the season begins in 2021.

Mark Canha - I don't think many people internally and externally thought Canha would have this good of a career. He's a local guy who attended Cal and is beloved by all the guys in the clubhouse. Last season, he set career highs in just about every offensive category while playing solid defense in all the outfield positions. He's not terribly expensive by most team's standards as his salary is about $5 million a year.

Prediction: Who do you value and want back most? Do you let him walk and use this money towards Hendriks or even Grossman? It's going to be difficult to sign all these guys under the usual budget the team has, especially coming off a financial disaster of year that is 2020. Ideally, he would be back, but given all the circumstances I wouldn't be surprised if he's not in the green and gold.

Joakim Soria - Soria started his A's tenure unceremoniously. Last season was subpar by his standards. However, he was able to get back on track with a 2.82 ERA in 22.1 innings this year.

Prediction: At age 37, I think it'd be surprising if he's back. He definitely has gas left in the tank, but he'll be looking at bigger money than what the A's are going to be willing to give. This season he was under contract for $8.5 million.

Yusmeiro Petit - Outside of Hendriks you could make the argument he's been the most valuable reliever the past few seasons. Not only does he have a consistently low ERA from year to year, but he is the bellcow for innings pitched out of the pen. He'll be 36 years old next season and looking to keep up the same productivity.

Prediction: If the money allow it, they should bring him back, but this is after you take care of the primary internal free agents. A one year deal would work perfect for both parties. The other option is to do what the Astros did this season and let youngsters take over the bullpen. It's worked out really well this postseason, but during the regular season it was a struggle for them. This deal is all contingent upon other priorities.

Robbie Grossman - This signing was a perfect example of a "because he gets on base" acquisition. On offense, he takes a lot of pitches and works the count into his favor, which is why he draws a good amount of walks. On defense, he's a good player. He makes the routine plays, but won't wow you with the amazing plays like Laureano.

Prediction: I doubt he'll be back. The A's have had 4 quality outfielders this past season with Canha, Piscotty, Laureano, and Grossman. The organization would be more apt in bringing Canha back over Grossman. I also think the emergence of Luis Barrera, top 10 prospect in the organization, will be given a chance to come up.

Tommy La Stella - If you watch the A's religiously you know the results of an at bat are typically a home run, strikeout or walk. La Stella was only with the team for a couple months, but you could immediately see and feel his impact. His combined batting average with the A's and Angels this season was .281. The remarkable aspect of his season was that he struckout 12 times and walked 27. To hit for a good average and have this amount of walks is something that doesn't go unnoticed.

Prediction: Outside of Semien and Hendriks I think he'll be a huge priority. He fits with this ballclub really well and shouldn't cost too much to bring back. It would be a big failure to let him walk, but he'll be highly sought after by other teams so we'll have to see.

T.J. McFarland - He didn't have too many opportunities to put much on tape. He's a lefty arm that could be utilized depending on who is with the organization going forward.

Prediction: I think some of the younger arms will get opportunities next season. I'd be surprised if he's back next year.

Jake Lamb - He was an all star in 2017 hitting 30 home runs that season. He came in and helped fill the void left by Matt Chapman. If Chapman is fully healed by spring training next season there would be no opening to have Lamb back.

Prediction: I wouldn't mind seeing him as the DH next year, but that won't happen as he's good enough to play 3rd base everyday. Plus, Khris Davis is under contract through next year. Solid player that helped resurrect a buyers market for himself this free agent period.

MLB Free Agents

This organization seems to a be a pillar of success. Since 2000 the Oakland A's have made the postseason 11 times. The only teams with more appearances since then are the Dodgers (12), Cardinals (15), and Yankees (17). This is certainly rarefied air. Unfortunately, the A's, and Dodgers, don't have the grand prize to show for these appearances. The A's are very close to breaking through if they're willing to spend the money to bring in more pieces. The caveat is how willing will they be to spend, especially with everything going on during the 2020 year. Here are some options they could look into:

Designated Hitter Options

Khris Davis is still under contract for the 2021 season, but outside of his solid postseason it's fair to say it was more than a struggle for him this year. He'll definitely have the opportunity to win back his spot in the lineup, but bringing in some competition at the right price wouldn't be a terrible idea.

Yoenis Cespedes - His run in New York came to an unceremonious ending with him being reported as missing before eventually notifying the club he decided to opt out. Reports were that he was not happy being the team's full time DH. With his injury history it will be very unlikely any team offers him a full time outfield position as a free agent signing. He's past his prime, but still has some to offer. Reuniting him in the Bay Area could be a perfect opportunity for him and the team. He shouldn't cost too much to go out and sign. The biggest hurdle will be his acceptance as the full time Designated Hitter.

Nelson Cruz - This signing would automatically bring the A's back into contention for not only the division, but also for a pennant. I'm not sure where he found the fountain of youth, but he sure has found it. The past 5 seasons he has hit 43, 39, 37, 41, and 16 home runs. 16 home runs occurring during this 60 game shortened season. He'll be 41 years old in the middle of next season so that could be an issue, but the productivity hasn't declined yet. He's still going to command a large contract and for that reason I don't foresee this as a legit option for the ballclub.

Edwin Encarnación - Another professional hitter that's been around forever. He is very much like Khris Davis in that he is a home run or strikeout hitter. In limited games this season he was able to slug 10 home runs. However, his batting average was .157 and on-base percentage was a mere .250. He's on the decline going on age 38 and could be a cheaper option than the two mentioned above, but at this point I would roll the dice on Khris Davis rather than him.

2nd Base

I'm hoping the team won't have to look any further than Tommy La Stella, but just in case 'ish hits the fan' here are some options.

Jed Lowrie - He's available and that's a good thing for the A's. This would definitely be option C, D, E, and F, but he's beloved by the fans and front office.

Jonathan Schoop - He'd be a younger option than La Stella, but will also cost a bit more to sign. He's got really good pop for a second baseman which the A's value, but his ability to get on base is far worse than La Stella. Again, let's hope La Stella is re-signed and not have to worry about these options.

Shortstop

Similar to the situation with La Stella lets hope this isn't a position of need with Semien staying. Having said that, there are some good options if he decides to take his talents elsewhere.

Didi Gregorius - As a hitter, he's been more consistent than Semien over his career. They both are 30 years old and can still offer a lot to a ballclub. One of the biggest distinctions between Semien and Gregorius is health. Semien has been a model of consistency while Gregorius has dealt with injuries throughout the years. You could definitely make the argument that Gregorius has been a better player than Semien. However, as the saying goes, the best ability is availability.

Andrelton Simmons - He's regarded as one of the best fielding shortstops in the league. He would be a slight upgrade in that department. However, his hitting has always seemed to lag in comparison to his defense, and similar to Gregorius he has been laid up by injuries in the past. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Semien is in Angel red and Simmons is in Athletic green.

Outfield

With both Grossman and Canha slated to be free agents it would be smart for the A's to at least look at other options. As stated earlier, I think Canha gets a deal done while Grossman could be on his way out.

There are a lot of options on the market this offseason. As always, it will come down to how much the organization wants to spend. Here are options based on unrealistic to realistic:

Unrealistic - George Springer, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Brantley.

What these guys are doing in the postseason is only enhancing their value. What if I told you Khris Davis had a larger annual salary this year than Michael Brantley? Something tells me Brantley is going to be making more than Davis after this free agency.

Highly Unlikely - Jackie Bradley Jr., Joc Pederson

Both are good players and offer a lot to a team, but are either of these options all that much better than what the A's already have? Pederson would be more of an option than Bradley Jr. for the mere fact that Laureano has center field locked down. Also, he's from northern California and could want to come home. I wouldn't put too much stock in either of these options.

Realistic - Josh Reddick, Enrique Hernandez, Jake Marisnick, Michael Taylor

All these options would be comparable to what Grossman and/or Canha will be looking to make in free agency. Reddick is intriguing because of the familiarity with the team. Not sure why they'd choose him over Canha, but who knows. Enrique 'Kike' Hernandez is a utility guy that could be extremely valuable to the A's organization. His numbers aren't that great, but it's hard to put too much stock in them as he's never been a full time starter. Marisnick and Taylor are very similar in that they were both highly rated prospects. They are amazing fielders whose bats have never seemed to catch up. It would interesting to see if the team takes a flier on them as they have great speed as well.

Starting Pitching

If Mike Fiers and Mike Minor decide to walk that would leave the team with a rotation, barring trades, of Manaea, Montas, Luzardo, and Bassitt. Thus, they'd be looking for a 5th starter and spot starter.

Unrealistic - Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta

All three of these guys are over the age of 35. I could see at least one of them going to a team like the Angels or Padres. All 3 have had declining numbers and I think it'd be best to steer clear of these guys.

Highly Unlikely - Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray

All three have had solid MLB careers. Tanaka would be interesting, but at what price. If I recall, the A's took a chance on fellow countryman, Hideki Matsui. Tanaka is younger than Matsui was when he signed that deal with the A's, and will be asking for more money than both Mike Fiers and Mike Minor. Stroman would immediately move into the ace role with the team. Again, money is the biggest issue preventing this signing. Ray is under the age of 30 and left handed which bodes well for him. Due to this, teams are going to overspend on what his production has been in his career. Outside of age I would choose Minor 10 out of 10 times over Robbie Ray.

Realistic - Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Taijuan Walker

All 3 have shown in their career they had potential as the number 1 or 2 starter in a rotation. Teheran had a horrendous season with the Angels this past year. He's still young, and prior to this shortened season had shown he could be a consistent starter. Walker is a big potential guy. He's always had quality stuff, but has been traded twice in his short career, which could be a damning sign. Alex Wood could be the best option of the 3. Not only is it because he is a lefty, but because he has the ability to start or come out of the bullpen.

Relief Pitching

Starting pitching wasn't ideal this postseason, but it was the bullpen that really was a letdown after a magnificent regular season. The bullpen has the biggest question marks with who could leave in free agency. Soria, Hendriks, Petit, and McFarland are all free agents this offseason. Here are some replacement options that could be considered:

Blake Treinen - He went to the Dodgers last offseason and was able to regain some of his form. Granted, he was pitching in a lot of games in which the Dodgers had large leads so his numbers could be deflated (or inflated based on how you look at it) based off pressure situations. We'll see what chips fall and who the team brings back. I doubt there would be a reunion, but might keep him open as an option.

Hansel Robles - He had a really good year in 2019 with 23 saves for the Angels. Unfortunately for him, he was demoted from the closer role this past season. It doesn't come as much of a surprise as the new manager Joe Maddon wants to put his imprints on changing the culture for the organization. He could be a good back of the rotation guy, especially if Hendriks leaves.

Michael Wacha - This would be more of spot starter than bullpen need, but he could be a guy the team takes a chance on. It wasn't long ago that he was starting big games in the postseason for the St. Louis Cardinals. He's had a few rough seasons, but that would bode well for a team trying to get most bang for their buck like the A's.

Hypothetical Moves

The A's had one of its better teams in a while, and still bowed out in the Division Series. They have incredible potential in making a run with this core, but I believe this roster currently assembled would not get past the likes of Tampa Bay, New York, Houston, or the White Sox in the future. Minnesota or Cleveland would also be a formidable foe, but I believe the A's could prevail against them. The team the A's should try emulate is the Tampa Bay Rays. Not only are the Rays a great team, but they, by many people's account, have the top farm system. Thus, even if they were to falter this postseason they'll still have internal reinforcements on the way. I believe the A's should look to bolster their farm system while continuing to succeed on the field. These are all hypothetical things to consider:

Chad Pinder is an interesting name to throw out there for a trade. He's a really solid player that should be playing everyday no matter where he is. The fact that he can play the infield and outfield makes him even more valuable. If the A's don't re-sign La Stella then he could be an option at 2nd base. He's been given this opportunity before and not run with it so that is somewhat concerning. After this postseason, I'm not sure his stock could be any higher. With that being, I would consider shopping him to get an MLB caliber player and prospect. I like Pinder and want him to be an A, but at some point you've got to either play him everyday or find positions of immediate need in his absence.

Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea are both good starting pitchers. Both guys have shown flashes of being the #2 guy in any rotation. The sample size this season was too small to make definitive decisions on both. Bassitt is a pitcher that could command at least 2 quality prospects from a team, and Manaea the same along with an MLB ready player. I could see a trade with a team like the Blue Jays or Cardinals making a lot of sense.

*This will probably be the most unnerving hypothetical to all A's fans (sorry in advance).*

Matt Chapman is scheduled to be a free agent in 2024. That seems like a ways off, but we've seen how quick the calendar turns. Chapman is right up there as the best third baseman in all of baseball. He's certainly the best fielding of them all. He'll be 28 by the middle of next season and is still learning and developing. He's compared to Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado in discussions involving everyday 3rd basemen. Below are stats that show how much more valuable these two are than Chapman on the offensive side. Since Chapman's first full season came in 2018 we will start from there and omit 2020 since this was an anomaly of a season anyways. Factor in defense and it's close, but I'd still take the two over him.

Matt Chapman

• 2018

• Average - .278

• On-Base - .356

• OPS - .864

• HR - 24

• 2019

  • Average - .249

  • On-Base - .342

  • OPS - .848

  • HR - 36

Alex Bregman

• 2018

  • Average - .286

  • On-Base - .394

  • OPS - .926

  • HR - 31

• 2019

  • Average - .296

  • On-Base - .423

  • OPS - 1.015

  • HR - 41

Nolan Arenado

• 2018

  • Average - .297

  • On-Base - .374

  • OPS - .935

  • HR - 38

• 2019

  • Average - .315

  • On-Base - .379

  • OPS - .962

  • HR - 41

With Justin Turner scheduled to be a free agent this offseason you could see the Dodgers looking to make moves. It just so happens that they have some extremely talented prospects that are already making impacts during this postseason. They've been steadfast in saying they WILL NOT trade Gavin Lux, but if the A's could get Lux and Dustin May for Matt Chapman I think that's a trade you have to make. Both guys are under the age of 24 and under team control for multiple seasons. It's not the popular sentiment, but neither is losing Matt Chapman for nothing to free agency.

In Conclusion

This has been one of the most successful 3-year stints by the organization. Unfortunately, they only have one series win to show for it. It appears that changes are on the horizon, but I'm hopeful that by doing it now rather than down the road it will allow for an uncompromised product on the field. In my opinion, they can find a way to keep key players while developing a strong farm system. Unfortunately, that will mean that at least one of the core guys will have to go at some point. Here's to a great 2020 season and hopefully many more to come!