Giants Offseason Hypotheticals

These past 4 seasons have been extremely tough for the Giants and their fanbase. I'm sure if you told Giants fans their team would win 3 World Series titles in 5 seasons they would sign the dotted line with no questions asked. Even if it meant struggling for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the foreseeable future is now for the Giants. It's been close to 2 full years in the Farhan Zaidi era and it's been a slow and difficult process, especially for the fans. Prior to Farhan, there had been a lot of 'legacy contracts' for players who were a part of the World Series runs. The vast majority of those players were diminishing as everyday starters. There were also a lot of head scratching long-term deals that were made for a team whose window was essentially shut.

The Giants are not the Dodgers or Yankees in that they will not open up the payroll and spend religiously on players, nor should they. We'll take a dive into their surprising 2020 season, as well as some obstacles they will face going forward.

Farm System

Dodgers Tenure

As recently as 2019, the Giants farm system was regarded as one of the worst in all the league. Not ideal considering they had 3-straight seasons of under .500 baseball. As stated above, the hiring of Farhan has brought a renewed sense of optimism with what he has accomplished thus far with the club. He should be widely thanked for the previous and current regular season dominance of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Some of his notable picks with the Dodgers include Gavin Lux, Will Smith, and Walker Buehler. Obviously, he shouldn't be given all the credit for these selections, but as the General Manager he deserves high praise.

Giants Tenure

The Giants top prospect for the past couple of seasons has been Joey Bart. He was selected in the 2018 draft as the heir apparent to Buster Posey. Outside of that 2018 draft, it doesn't appear that many of those picks will have much sticking power in the major leagues. There will be a few that could be household names, but at this point it's more of a crap-shoot than a sure thing.

2019 Draft

Farhan's first draft with the Giants yielded them Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt. Both of whom, are in the organization's top 30 prospects. They also come from high level collegiate programs, which was a common theme from the 2019 draft. Of the 40 draft selections, 26 of them were from 4-year colleges, and 2 from Junior-Colleges. Draft picks out of high school typically have higher ceilings, but significant potential as bigger busts. If you look at the Giants core roster during their historic run it's easy to see how impactful college players can be. Posey, Belt, Crawford, Panik and Lincecum to name a few.

2020 Draft

In the second draft under Farhan's tenure, we continued to see the trend of quality college players taken at the top of their board. In the first round, the Giants selected Catcher Patrick Bailey. This was somewhat of a head-scratcher considering they still have Buster Posey and top prospect Joey Bart. If there is a trend in baseball that is prevalent today, it is that you draft the best player on the board regardless of position. Bailey sits as the 6th best prospect in the Giants organization, and is expected to be with the ballclub by 2023. Having said that, Posey will probably be off the roster by then, which would allow for Bailey and Bart to either catch and/or play first.

Overview

Outside of the Hunter Bishop selection none of the other picks jump off the paper. There are two ways to interpret that. 1.) Less risk and less-wasted picks 2.) Quality players coming up through the system right away. Farhan's track record, and the Giants ability to develop it's young talent will prove to be critical. We'll have to see just how patient the Giants and their fanbase will be. If they can remain patient they could be a force to be reckoned with in the future. All you have to do is look at the teams currently in the playoffs to see how draft picks can turn an organization's fortunes around.

International Signings

The previous regime made some great International signings. 4 of the Giants top 10 prospects are international signings. The Giants have had some of the most influential international signings in baseball history with Juan Marichal and Orlando Cepeda. More recently, the Giants signed a kid named Pablo Sandoval at the age of 16. I'd say he had a great career in the orange and black.

The 4 top international signings in the Giants farm system are Marco Luciano (#2 rated in organization according to MLB.com), Alexander Canario (#7), Luis Toribio (#8), and Luis Matos (#9). Luciano was most recently rated the 29th best prospect in all of MLB. Many consider him a shortstop in the big leagues, while some think he will be moved to the outfield. Unfortunately, the shortened MLB season and cancellation of the Minor Leagues was an opportunity missed for him to refine his skills on a day-to-day basis. Having said that, he was able to compete in extended spring training and was able to turn some heads with his pop at the plate. He will be a crucial key to the Giants getting back to the postseason in the future. Do not surprised by the other 3 making impacts sooner rather than later.

Immediate Future

The Giants had a phenomenal season. Depending on how you're wired, you either look back on it as an opportunity missed to make the postseason, or an opportunity they probably shouldn't have had given expectations. The Giants pushed for a playoff spot all the way until the final day of the 2020 season. They were one of those clubs, along with the Marlins, that greatly benefited from a shortened season. One of the most beneficial aspect of this season was that the Giants were able to see younger players in their system, while also cutting ties with 'Forever Giants' who were past their expiration.

This offseason is going to be extremely important in the rebuild of the San Francisco Giants. The most difficult part of this job for Farhan Zaidi is recognizing that they play in one of the toughest divisions in all of baseball. Here are some moves that could prove valuable to getting them back into contention within the next 5 season:

Giants Free Agents

Kevin Gausman - prior to coming to the Giants he was a player that had bounced around with a few teams, and had even taken roles out of the bullpen. Much to the chagrin of the Orioles he wasn't able to figure it out and eventually became expendable. This season with the Giants he was able to put a lot of good qualities on tape. He went 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. To put that in perspective, a WHIP of 1.10 is considered great and an upper echelon pitcher. It'll cost the Giants more than the 1-year, $9 million to bring him back going forward, but he would be a great veteran in the clubhouse to help with rebuilding and teaching the up and coming prospects

Prediction: 2-years, $22 million

Drew Smyly - he came on very strong with the Tampa Bay Rays a few seasons back. For him, staying healthy has been an issue as of late. In limited starts this season, he was able to put up some impressive numbers. He finished the season with 3.42 ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) rating of 2.01. FIP is oftentimes more of an indicator of a pitcher's performance because it takes the defensive aspect out of the equation. For reference, in 2011, Roy Halladay (runner up for the Cy Young Award that season) had a FIP of 2.17. What hurts Smyly is that he was only able to log 26.1 innings this season.

Prediction: Sample size of 7 starts wasn't enough to make an evaluation. If he's willing to take another 1-year deal then it'd make sense, but outside of that I would let him walk.

Jeff Samardzija - he was designated for assignment the final week of the season.

Prediction: Never say never, but I don't think he fits into the new regime's plans, and his numbers wouldn't warrant another contract.

Tony Watson - he is a really solid relief pitcher, and has been so for a decade now. This season he ended with a 2.50 ERA, which was inflated over his final 2 appearances. Prior to these 2 appearances he held an ERA of just .53. Left handed Relief Pitchers have always been extremely valuable. With the new 3 batter rule for relief pitchers we've seen a premium on left handed relief pitchers that can get righties and lefties out at similar rate.

Prediction: I believe they should bring him back. If worst comes to worst and the team is out of the playoff race prior to the trade deadline next season he would immediately become the team's biggest asset to trade. I wouldn't be surprised if he receives a 1-year, $3 to $4 million contract.

Trevor Cahill - this signing was a shot in the dark. After his horrendous season with the Angels the Giants took a flyer on him with a minor league deal. He only pitched 25 innings this season, but was able to put up a respectable 3.24 ERA.

Prediction: He'll be 33 years old next season, and on the backside of his career. I doubt the Giants would bring him back on a contract. Maybe a minor league deal, but I think it's best for both parties to go there own ways.

MLB Free Agents

The Giants have found absolute gems in Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, and Alex Dickerson. All three of these guys seemed to find, and tap into their full potential. The only issue with all three of them is they are over 30-years of age. I don't foresee too many moves upcoming with this roster. It will be interesting to see if they shop Brandon Belt this offseason. With Bart up to stay and Posey coming back I wouldn't be surprised if next season is the transition year for Posey to first base full-time. My prediction is for the Giants to be very active in the pitching market. Here are some key free agent to look out for:

Trevor Bauer - he's a California guy and an engaging personality. These two things make him extremely attractive to the Giants. He would be beloved in SF for his outgoing personality and twitter takes. He'll be 30 years old once the 2021 season starts, which means this is likely be his last chance to get a monster deal. I don't think anyone would consider him in the same category as Gerrit Cole, outside of him thinking that. Cole at the same age last offseason signed a 9-year, $324 million deal. Going to be tough to justify spending that money, but never say never, especially if Farhan wants to put his imprint on the organization.

Marcus Stroman - this is definitely an intriguing pitcher for the Giants to consider. He's been a model of consistency posting a career ERA of 3.76. With the Mets in limbo, I find it hard to believe he'll be back. Stroman has electric stuff and is a true competitor. He's going to garner a lot of attention in the free agent market, but I would definitely look at locking him up. The only negatives against him is that he'll be on the backside of 30 midway through next season, along with his stature. He's not the biggest of guys, but I wouldn't read to much into that.

Taijuan Walker - this could be an under the radar pick up if the Giants didn't want to spend as much on a free agent pitcher as the guys listed above. Walker has struggled with injuries and consistency, but when is healthy and on his game he can be dominant. He has a career ERA under 4.00 and is only 28 years old. He definitely doesn't stand up to the previous names mentioned, but would be a smart, economic option as a 3rd or 4th starter.

Justin Turner - this seems like an interesting name to float out there, but he is one of Farhan's guys from LA. The issue with this signing is that you still have Longoria manning third base.

Nelson Cruz - he'd be an immediate improvement to the DH spot. This signing would be contingent upon the NL adopting the DH full time next season. He's proven he is still a top 10-hitter in the league. I doubt he'd come to a rebuild situation as a 40 year old.

George Springer - this signing would also bring immediate credibility to the organization. The biggest obstacles to this signing is the amount of money he will be commanding. Internally, the organization has to ask the question of whether Mauricio Dubon is going to play centerfield full time going forward. Don't rule this signing out, but I'd be shocked if he's wearing a jersey not named Astros.

Division Synopsis

The Dodgers aren't going anywhere anytime soon. This season is definitely a championship or bust year for them. If they do lose, I wouldn't be surprised if they go to the well and add more starting pitching. Also, with Turner set to be a free agent we could see them inquire about Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado. Another rumor has been acquiring Lindor and moving Seager to 3rd base. Either way you slice it they are going to be tough to beat.

The Padres have made moves these past few seasons that also put them in direct contention for a World Series. I don't think they are done adding pieces, but we'll have to see if they are willing to spend with the big boys like the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox.

The Rockies and Diamondbacks are in the 'Grey' zone. They have very talented and big name players, but not enough overall roster depth to unseat the two mentioned above. I wouldn't be shocked if both the Rockies and Diamondbacks became sellers this offseason.

This should be an interesting offseason for the Giants. I wouldn't rule out some big name signings, but I also wouldn't expect a winning season for a couple years.