Blake Snell to San Diego

DEAL

Rays Receive:

Luis Patiño, Francisco Mejía, Cole Wilcox and Blake Hunt

Padres Receive:

Blake Snell

Why the Tampa Bay Rays made this deal?

Simple, they believe Blake Snell's stock was at the highest it would become. Here are the factors that rationalize their thought process:

1. He is 2 full seasons away from being 30 years old

2. He is under contract through the 2023 season

3. He has eclipsed 180 Innings Pitched in a season once throughout his career. Thus, he has a lot left in the tank

4. He already has a Cy Young Award to his name

5. He stifled one of the most prolific offenses of all-time in the World Series

Another, and more important factor in dealing Snell was the economic strain caused by covid-19. According to reports, the Rays projected revenue loss for the 2020 season is estimated at $67,144,151 (article below). Ironically, only the Orioles and Marlins were estimated to lose less. Still, that kind of money for a low spending team was enough to feel the need to rid with a budding superstar.

Why this deal could work?

Competitive sustainability. How does taking away the team's best starting pitcher make them better? Short answer, it doesn't....at least in the immediate future. Prior to this deal, the Rays had been recognized as having the best farm system of all major league organizations. This deal strengthens their farm system, while giving them contractual flexibility in the future. With the completion of this trade the Rays now have 7 of the top 100 prospects in ALL of baseball.

The Rays are hoping for similar, if not better results comparative to their Chris Archer trade with the Pirates. The Rays acquired Austin Meadows (2019 All-Star), Tyler Glasnow (Game 1 World Series Starter), and Shane Baz (Top 100 prospect) as a result of that deal. The results from this trade have overwhelmingly favored the Rays, and more than likely played a role in trading Snell.

The amount of prospects the Rays have accumulated makes it appear they are far from done this off-season. Do not be surprised if they continue to wheel and deal.

You could expect a trade similar to the one they completed prior to the 2020 season. The Rays traded away highly touted prospect, Matthew Liberatore for Cardinals prospect, Randy Arozarena. These weren't the only players involved in this deal, but the two biggest pieces. This trade played huge dividends in the Rays not only making the postseason, but excelling all the way to the World Series. Needless to say, the Rays do their research on other team's prospects and know how to get the best out of them once they get to Tampa.

Dealing Snell will be considered a success if the Rays are in World Series contention by at least 2025. This deal was directly made for financial sustainability. The Red Sox and Yankess will continue to spend big money, and the emergence of the Blue Jays have the Rays looking long-term. Despite losing a great pitcher I would expect the Rays to continue to be competitive.

Why this deal won't work?

Prospects. Prospects are never a sure thing. There are so many factors that go into the Major League success of a prospect. The development, the maturity, the physical tools. These are all major aspects that go a long way in determining the viability of how a good a ballplayer will become.

The Rays are no stranger to trading for prospects. Here are a few trades from the recent past that included proven talent for prospects at the time of the deal:

2012

Rays got from Royals: OF Wil Myers, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, IF/OF Patrick Leonard

Rays gave up: RHP James Shields, RHP Wade Davis

This trade wasn't terrible for the Rays. They received 3 of the Royals top 10 prospects from that season. Myers went on to become the AL Rookie of the Year with the Rays in 2013, which should be considered a win. However, Myers was subsequently traded after the 2014 season. He was certainly productive enough to have been kept around, but it's difficult to consider his tenure a success after getting traded so soon. Odorizzi was also successful as he strung together multiple solid seasons for the Rays. Unfortunately for Myers and Odorizzi, it was more about the performances of Shields and Davis with the Royals that sours this deal. Shields guided the Royals to back-to-back playoff appearances, and was instrumental in Kansas City clinching the American League Pennant in 2014. Wade Davis went on to become the best closer in all of baseball while setting multiple major league records.

It's difficult to say this trade was a success for the Rays because the best prospect, Myers, was gone from the organization after two seasons.

2017

Rays got from Giants: IF Christian Arroyo, OF Denard Span, LHP Matt Krook, RHP Stephen Woods

Rays gave up: 3B Evan Longoria

Again, this trade wasn't terrible. The reason it can't be considered a success is due to the fact that not one of the assets acquired is still with the organization. Arroyo was the headliner of this trade for the Rays. He was the #2 prospect for the Giants at the time of this trade. He lasted only two seasons and never appeared in more than 20 games a season with Tampa.

In Conclusion

The Rays have taken the concept of moneyball and remodeled it's principles for the benefit of their own ideologies. They have become the trendsetter for the entire league. The Rays have been instrumental in popularizing the concepts of 'the opener'* and 'bullpening.'* I believe this Snell trade could symbolize the end of the traditional starting pitcher in Tampa Bay.

Whether you agree or disagree with their strategy there is merit to their philosophy. The Rays have crunched the analytics and proven how a plethora amount of pitching changes spread throughout a game increases the odds of winning. This deviates from the traditional thought process of, starting pitcher to reliever to setup man to closer.

In conclusion, this trade may be more about philosophy than it is about Snell. I don't think starting pitchers will ever be abolished from the sport, but their usage could be changing. The only way to determine the success of this new school methodology is by winning. If the Rays win, expect the other smaller market teams to follow suit.

*An "opener" is a pitcher -- normally a reliever -- who starts a game for purposes of matching up against the top of the opponent's lineup in the first inning, which has traditionally been the highest-scoring inning, before being relieved by a pitcher who would otherwise function as a starter.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/idioms/opener#:~:text=Definition,otherwise%20function%20as%20a%20starter.

*"Bullpenning,” the practice of eschewing a traditional starting pitcher in favor of a parade of relievers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-starting-pitcher-strikes-back-11556633329#:~:text=%E2%80%9CBullpenning%2C%E2%80%9D%20the%20practice%20of,defined%20the%202018%20baseball%20season.&text=Relievers%20across%20the%20major%20leagues,of%20any%20April%20since%202009.

Weatherly, Kaleel. “No Fans, No Funds: How Much Pittsburgh Pirates, Other MLB Teams Lost on Game Day Revenue.” Bizjournals.com, 1 Oct. 2020, www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2020/10/01/mlb-projected-gameday-revenue-lost.html.