2020 World Series Preview

Keys to Series

Tampa Bay Rays

1. Take Game One - the Dodgers are coming into this series on a 3-game win streak after overcoming a 3-1 deficit against the Braves. It will be crucial for both teams to put aside their previous series and focus on the task at hand. The winner of game one has gone on to win the World Series over 60% of the time. The Dodgers are the more talented team, which is why it is imperative the Rays strike first.

2. Running Game - the Rays were sixth in the league during the regular season with 48 stolen bases. In this day and age, the stolen base is more of a novelty than a reoccurrence. If there is a glaring weakness of the Dodgers it is that they are vulnerable to active runners. The Padres and Braves both found success against Dodger pitching and catcher, Will Smith. Smith, in the regular season allowed 17 stolen bases, while throwing out 5 baserunners. In the postseason, he's allowed 6 stolen bases and thrown out just 1. Margot, Kiermaier, and Wendle could be primed for a big series on the basepaths.

3. Brandon Lowe - Lowe led the Rays during the regular season in runs scored, hits, home runs, RBI, and total bases. However, this postseason hasn't been as fortuitous for Lowe. He's hitting only .115 with 9 total bases. To put this in perspective, Tim Anderson of the White Sox had 11 total bases in 3 games, while Lowe has appeared in 14. According to BaseballSavant, Lowe was 7th in the league among qualified hitters (regular season) with a barrel rate* of 10.7% of his plate appearances. If the Rays are able to get any semblance of regular season Brandon Lowe they could be primed to capture their first World Series title.

4. Starting Pitching - the Rays have succeeded thus far against two of the best lineups in the league, in the Astros and Yankees. Not to mention, an up and coming Blue Jays team in the Wild Card series. However, this Dodgers lineup had a far superior batting average and OPS percentage than the aforementioned teams. Snell, Glasnow, and Morton are going to have to have to go at least five innings strong if they want to have any chance this series. The Rays 'stable of arms' is one of the best pens in baseball, but towards the end of the Astros series it was evident the wear and tear of 7 straight games was beginning to take its toll. It's going to be fun watching Snell, Glasnow and Morton face off against Buehler, Kershaw and May.

5. Make the 'other guys' beat you - every single player in the Dodgers lineup is a star. However, some of them aren't superstars at this juncture. Contrary to the popular coaching strategy, I think it's going to be crucial to focus on the easier outs in a gauntlet of a lineup. Betts, Seager, Turner, and Bellinger are going to get their numbers. Obviously, you want to limit it, but it's the other guys that have made the big difference this postseason. Muncy, Smith, Pollock, Taylor, Pederson, and Hernandez have set the table for the superstars in each and every game this postseason. If the Rays can limit these guys I believe they'll put themselves in a great position to win this series.

X-Factor - Mike Zunino

He's played solid defense and called some great games behind the dish. Trying to control the slew of pitchers that throw 99mph+ isn't any easy task, but he's done an amazing job this postseason. The biggest reason Zunino is the x-factor is because of his offense. He is a career .200 hitter. Literally, .200. During the regular season, Zunino hit 4 home runs in 84 plate appearances. In the postseason, Zunino has hit 4 home runs in 39 plate appearances. Coincidence, or not, the Rays have won all 4 postseason games he's gone yard.

Los Angeles Dodgers

1. Play Loose - it's not like the Dodgers are trying to snap a World Series Championship drought, oh wait. The last time they've hoisted the Commissioner's Trophy was all the way back in 1988. To put that in perspective, the Dallas Cowboys have won 3 Super Bowls since then (sorry to single you out Cowboy fans). In the 2017 & 2018 World Series, it felt as though the Dodgers were playing tight, which in-turn caused them to change their style of play from the previous series' and regular season. This team has postseason and World Series experience and that should allow them to play and remain calm during the triumphs and defeats of a series.

2. Be the Bully - this team is the overwhelming pick to defeat the Rays. When they are rolling, they are pummeling their opponents. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored 349 runs and allowed 213. This differential of +136 was good for best in the league. The next closest were the Padres with a differential of +84. If they can get into the Rays bullpen early in the series and tire those arms out they can take all the pressure off themselves and play with house money.

3. Limiting the K - the Tampa Bay Ray's hitters led the league, and not in a good way, during the regular season by striking out 608 times. The Dodgers on the other hand only struckout 471 times, which was good for 4th best in the league. Many of the new baseball metrics have placed higher importance on other categories, but it's amazing how putting the ball in play is still at a premium. This Rays pitching staff is going to challenge the Dodgers with their high 90's fastballs and knee-bending curves, but if the Dodgers can stay disciplined and draw the occasional walk they'll be able to create rallies that start out of nothing. Multiple times during their NLCS they were able to draw two out walks and start rallies. It happened in Game 7 with Turner taking an 8-pitch base on balls. These grinding at-bats create stress that can't be understated. As we saw, after Turner's walk the Dodgers followed with a Muncy double, and Smith single to knot the game at 2-2 in the 3rd inning.

4. Limit Arozarena - a year ago Randy Arozarena was a fringe postseason player for the St. Louis Cardinals. If you're familiar with the Cardinals you knew him as the guy that went live on Instagram during manager, Mike Shildt's NSFW celebratory post-game speech after defeating the Braves in a winner take all game. This season he appeared in less than half of the Rays 60 regular season games. However, he was able to post an excellent OPS of 1.022. An OPS of 1.000 and higher is considered all-worldly. This postseason, Arozarena has earned playing time and not disappointed. Assuming he doesn't go into a monumental slump he will pass Derek Jeter's most postseason hits by a rookie at 22 hits, as he already has 21. If the Dodgers can slow him down they'll be able to focus on a lineup that is prone to slumps.

5. Excellent Defense - in game 6 & 7 alone, the stunning plays by Mookie Betts saved the Dodgers in their pursuit of a championship. They were shaky on defense during the abbreviated regular season. They committed 40 errors, which was tied for 7th most in the league. It's difficult to say how detrimental these errors were, as the Dodgers were on cruise control the whole season. They definitely haven't been flawless with the lack of errors this postseason, but they've made tremendous plays to bail out their pitchers. The Rays were able to punish the Astros for their throwing errors last series. If the Dodgers can continue to make the routine plays along with a few Web Gems then they will successfully sure up any perceived weaknesses.

X-Factor - Kenley Jansen

This was difficult to select an x-factor for the Dodgers as they have so many different options. Urias, Graterol, Pederson, and Hernandez are all guys that could make significant impacts. The reason I selected Jansen is because of how important those back of the end bullpen guys are. The final 6 outs of a World Series game are the most difficult. Jansen has been solid for the Dodgers throughout his career. He has almost double the amount of saves in Dodger history as 2nd place, Eric Gagne. Unfortunately for him, he seemed to have lost his cutter at the most inopportune time. With his velocity down, his cutter has been staying flat and finding the hitter's sweet spot. Due to this, he has been relieved of his closer role, but has looked impressive in his last few outings. If Jansen can get back to his old self it deepens the Dodgers bullpen and essentially shuts the door on any late inning dramatics.

Summary

I anticipate a highly competitive series. It'll be interesting to see how the arms of the Rays hold up against the Dodgers deep lineup. With most the discussion about the Rays' pitchers it wouldn't surprise me if the Dodger's pitchers have a chip on their shoulder. It's also fascinating to see which team will deviate from their gameplan first. Some questions to look forward to are, which team could play small ball? Which team may use the opener? Which of the managers will flinch first?

Prediction - Dodgers in 6

*Barrels - A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle